The Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr) is an independent economics consultancy based in London, United Kingdom. Founded in 1992 by economist Douglas McWilliams, it is one of the UK's leading commercial economics consultancies, supplying economic forecasting and analysis to private firms and public bodies and producing some of the most widely reported economic forecasts in Britain.
One of the UK's leading economics consultancies
Cebr is a privately held consultancy headquartered at 4 Bath Street, London EC1V 9DX, with a team of between 20 and 49 economists. It supplies economic forecasting and analysis to private firms and public bodies, providing a range of economic services including economic impact studies, macroeconomic forecasting, policy research, and general economic strategy and consultancy. The firm describes its approach as unashamedly quantitative: its advice is supported by thorough numerical analysis, and it positions itself as an independent forecasting house whose top-line predictions for the United Kingdom are published by the Treasury and used in the Bank of England's quarterly inflation report. Its clients include major multinationals, financial institutions, government departments, charities and trade bodies.
Founded by Douglas McWilliams
Cebr was founded in 1992 by Douglas McWilliams, a former Chief Economic Adviser to the Confederation of British Industry and Chief Economist for IBM (UK). McWilliams established the firm in the same year that he won the Sunday Times Golden Guru Award for best United Kingdom economic forecaster, and he was later the Gresham College professor of business. Some of the firm's own materials date its foundation to 1993, when it began describing itself as 'making business sense' by applying theoretical economics backed by quantitative evidence to real-world decisions. McWilliams remains involved in the firm today as founder and deputy chairman, alongside chairman Martin Piers and chief executive Nina Skero.
Three teams: forecasting, advisory and infrastructure
Cebr's work is organised into three main teams. The Forecasting and Thought Leadership team delivers forecasts of the British and global economies and a range of economic tracker reports, such as the Irwin Mitchell UK Powerhouse Report and the Asda Income Tracker. The Economic Advisory team covers economic impact analysis, economic simulations, policy analysis, market sizing and valuations, and has advised industries including technology, energy, maritime, financial services, international trade, manufacturing, engineering and the arts. The Environment, Infrastructure and Local Growth team has provided analysis for transport planning and other areas of policy and strategy, including digital connectivity and housing. Together the teams allow the firm to move between micro-economic impact studies and macro-economic forecasting across the UK, the Eurozone and the global economy.
The World Economic League Table
Cebr's most famous product is the World Economic League Table, known as WELT, which it created in 2009 as a means of measuring the economic performance of countries around the globe. The league table is published once a year on Boxing Day, 26 December, and receives global media coverage. Its long-range projections have repeatedly made headlines: the firm has projected that India will rise from fifth place in the global rankings to become the third-largest economy in the world by 2037, and that it will become a 10-trillion-dollar economy by 2035, with India's annual GDP growth averaging around 6.4 to 6.5 per cent over the coming years. The table's combination of hard data and bold long-horizon forecasting has made it a fixture of the year-end news cycle.
Tracker reports and commercial partnerships
Alongside its headline forecasts, Cebr produces a series of regular tracker reports in partnership with commercial sponsors. The Asda Income Tracker measures household disposable income and has become a widely cited gauge of the spending power of British families. The Irwin Mitchell UK Powerhouse Report analyses the growth prospects of UK cities and regions. The firm has also partnered with the polling company YouGov to launch the UK Economic Index, described as the first comprehensive quarterly analysis of the country's economic outlook covering both consumers and businesses. The business component draws on research among 1,500 business decision-makers each quarter, measuring indicators such as headcount, capital investment and domestic and international sales revenue, while the consumer component is based on interviews with 18,000 people each quarter, covering household finances, house values and job security.
Economic advisory and impact work
The Economic Advisory arm of the firm undertakes commissioned research for clients across the economy. Its services include economic impact studies, which quantify the contribution of industries, projects or policies to GDP and employment; economic simulations, which model the effects of policy changes or shocks; and market sizing and valuation work. The team has advised clients in sectors as diverse as offshore wind, where it has assessed the economic benefits of renewable energy investment for the UK's balance of trade, through to technology, financial services, international trade and the creative industries. This consultancy work, alongside its public forecasting, underpins the firm's commercial model.
Leadership and ownership
Cebr remains a privately held company consultancy. Douglas McWilliams, the founder, serves as deputy chairman, while Martin Piers chairs the firm and Nina Skero serves as chief executive. The firm's legal registration in the United Kingdom reflects its long history: its company registration dates to the early 1990s, and it is classified under management consultancy activities. Unlike many British think tanks, which operate as charities, Cebr is run as a commercial consultancy, selling forecasting and advisory services to businesses and public bodies alike.
London headquarters and contact
The Centre for Economics and Business Research is based in London, England, with its head office at 4 Bath Street, London EC1V 9DX, in the United Kingdom. Its official website is cebr.com, where it publishes its reports, forecasts and commentary. The firm operates a single office and employs a compact team of macro- and micro-economists, supported by survey research, qualitative research, expert interviews, modelling and scenario planning capabilities.
Independence and recognition
Cebr's reputation rests on insightful economic analysis, award-winning forecasting and decisive business advice, based on what the firm describes as innovative research by a renowned team of macro- and micro-economists. Its willingness to challenge conventional wisdom, and to tell clients what it believes is right rather than what they want to hear, is a central part of its pitch. Whether through the Boxing Day World Economic League Table, its household income trackers or its commissioned advisory work, the firm has made itself one of the most recognisable names in British applied economics.
Why Cebr matters
In a crowded field of forecasters, Cebr has carved out influence through a combination of rigorous quantitative work and an instinct for communication. Its forecasts are quoted by the national press, used by policymakers and purchased by some of the world's largest companies. For businesses and public bodies trying to understand their environment, forecast changes in it, build robust strategies and persuade others, the firm offers the kind of independent, numbers-driven analysis that has defined British economic consultancy for more than three decades.
Outlook
As the United Kingdom navigates questions of productivity, regional growth, net zero and its place in the global economy, demand for independent economic analysis shows no sign of fading. Cebr's combination of public forecasting and commissioned advisory work positions it to keep serving both audiences: the media and policymakers who rely on its headline projections, and the businesses and public bodies that commission its detailed impact and simulation studies. More than thirty years after Douglas McWilliams founded the firm, its core proposition, making business sense through quantitative economics, remains as relevant as ever.
